Tableau · Public 10-K
Nike Revenue & Channel Performance
Just Didn't Do It
Revenue −10%. Inventory flat. Direct −13% vs wholesale −7%. FY2025 10-K analog.
Analyst · Tableau story · FY2025 10-K
A data analyst at a premium athletic brand does not need another logo slide. They need a call: which channel and region still deserve inventory depth, and which franchise already burned margin with discounts.
Tableau story · analog
Next unit
Public 10-K analog. Channel, region, franchise, and inventory from NIKE, Inc. FY2025 filings — then a clear-vs-hold call for the next unit. Not a claim I worked there.
The question
When revenue drops 10% and inventory stays flat, which channels should lose depth on the next buy — and which still deserve stock?
That is a replenishment decision, not a recap slide. Direct fell −13% while wholesale fell −7%. Gross margin already gave up 190 bps to 42.7% on markdowns and obsolescence. The analysis keeps the next unit from feeding the same pile.
Method
- Take the public mix. Region, channel, consumer/franchise, inventory, gross margin — FY2025 vs FY2024 from the earnings release and Form 10-K.
- Separate channel from brand. Nike Brand $44.714B (−9%). Wholesale $25.883B (−7% / −6% CN). Nike Direct $18.783B (−13% / −12% CN) — about 42% of Brand revenue. Digital inside Direct fell 20%; Nike-owned stores were flat.
- Rank the geos. Every geography declined. APLA (−3% CN) was the softest. Greater China (−12% CN) and EMEA (−10% CN) fell harder.
- Flag the franchise exception. Jordan Brand $7.270B (−16% CN) fell faster than Men’s, Women’s, or Kids’ (−5% to −6%).
- Call the next unit. Clear / cut / hold — the decision, not a chart of everything that went down.
Tableau / Power BI story · channel & region
Same story I would ship in Tableau or Power BI: KPI strip, story steps, one comparison, a table the morning can read. This page is that layout in HTML — not a Desktop workbook or a Service embed.
Wholesale fell less than Direct. Digital inside Direct (−20%) is the exception report.
| Bucket | FY2025 | FY2024 | Change | CN |
|---|
Source: NIKE, Inc. FY2025 earnings release (26 Jun 2025) and Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 May 2025 (Nike Investor Relations / SEC). Dollars in millions in the filing; shown in billions here. CN = currency-neutral, a company non-GAAP measure.
The numbers (cited)
| Bucket | FY2025 | Signal | Share of Brand |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIKE, Inc. revenue | $46.309B | −10% · −9% CN | — |
| Nike Brand | $44.714B | −9% · −9% CN | 100% |
| Wholesale | $25.883B | −7% · −6% CN | 57.9% |
| Nike Direct | $18.783B | −13% · −12% CN · digital −20%, stores flat | 42.0% |
| North America | $19.572B | −9% · −8% CN | 43.8% |
| EMEA | $12.257B | −10% · −10% CN | 27.4% |
| Greater China | $6.586B | −13% · −12% CN | 14.7% |
| APLA | $6.251B | −7% · −3% CN | 14.0% |
| Jordan Brand | $7.270B | −16% · −16% CN | 16.3% |
| Inventory | $7.489B | flat vs $7.519B | — |
Shares are of Nike Brand revenue $44.714B (association math from cited dollars). Converse $1.692B (−19%) sits outside Brand. Corporate revenue is a hedge plug, not a geography.
Gross margin
Two inventory readings
Company totals only. Inventory is not published by channel or region. The association is: revenue compressed 10%, the balance sheet inventory line did not.
Naive restock
Treat flat inventory as “cleaned up” and refill to last year’s Direct-heavy shape. Brand digital already fell 20%. Jordan fell 16%. Another Direct-first buy feeds the channel that discounted hardest and the franchise that shrunk fastest.
Mix-aware hold
Clear Jordan depth and digital-led SKUs first. Hold relative support for wholesale (still ~58% of Brand) and APLA (mildest geo at −3% CN). Do not confuse “stores flat” with “Direct is fine” — Direct is digital plus stores.
Proxy math, labeled as such: Nike Direct is 42% of Brand revenue. If inventory roughly followed that mix, about $3.1B of the $7.489B pile would sit on the Direct side (0.42 × $7.489B). That is an association, not a disclosed split. The point is the rate: revenue −10% with inventory ≈0% is weeks of supply rising, not a victory lap.
The decision (analog families)
No SKU sell-through and no regional inventory file was published. I will not invent one. The public proxies are good enough to rank the next unit:
| Analog family | Public proxy | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Brand | $7.270B · −16% CN · faster than Men’s/Women’s/Kids’ | Clear — franchise overhang |
| Nike Direct digital | Brand digital −20%; Direct −12% CN; stores flat | Cut depth — traffic problem, not door count |
| Greater China | $6.586B · −12% CN · EBIT −31% | Hold / cut — do not restock the decline |
| Wholesale | $25.883B · −6% CN · still 58% of Brand | Hold — fell less than Direct |
| APLA | $6.251B · −3% CN · softest geography | Hold relative — not a growth bet, least damage |
So what
Total revenue −10% is the wrong control tower. Revenue −10% with inventory flat, Direct −13%, and Jordan −16% is the exception report. Clear Jordan and digital-led depth. Hold wholesale share and the softest geo (APLA). That is how you stop feeding a 42.7% margin that already lost 190 bps to discounts and obsolescence.
Flat inventory after a down year is not neutral. It is unfinished clearance. The next buy that copies FY2024’s Direct weight copies the channel that fell twice as hard as wholesale on a currency-neutral basis.
Limitations
- Company totals, not SKU, size, or door-cluster sell-through. A real merchant file could reverse a family-level call.
- Inventory is not published by channel or region. The ~$3.1B Direct-side proxy assumes inventory follows Brand revenue mix.
- Currency-neutral growth is the company’s non-GAAP measure. I cite both reported and CN where the filing does.
- Jordan, Men’s, Women’s, and Kids’ are consumer/franchise views that can overlap with “Others” adjustments — use the disclosed dollars, not invented bridges.
- This is a portfolio analog, not advice to Nike or a claim I sat in their planning meeting.
What I would run with an actual export: weeks-of-supply by channel and franchise vs the company inventory line, digital conversion and traffic by geo, and a markdown-risk flag on Jordan depth still sitting after clearance windows.
Download Tableau extract (CSV) FY2025 analog. Publish from tableau/README.md.
Sources
- NIKE, Inc., Reports Fiscal 2025 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results, 26 Jun 2025 (Nike Investor Relations) — revenue $46.309B, Nike Brand $44.714B, wholesale $25.883B, Nike Direct $18.783B, digital −20%, stores flat, gross margin 42.7%, inventory $7.489B.
- Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 31 May 2025 (SEC / Nike Investor Relations) — segment revenues (North America, EMEA, Greater China, APLA), EBIT by segment, inventory-risk language, channel mix discussion.
- Supplemental Nike Brand revenue details in the FY2025 earnings exhibit — Men’s, Women’s, Kids’, Jordan Brand dollars and CN changes.